Week 4

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Last week: 3-3 on large plays, 2-4 on small. Only large loss that really was glaringly bad was taking Wisconsin. I just haven't seen them look that shitty at home in years. Iowa loss(no cover) mostly because of Troy's Devonte Ross just playing out of his head.

Small:
Illinois +8.5 Low total, two good defenses that run a lot. Hard to gauge just how good either team is. Both have a signature win vs. Colorado and Kansas- but otherwise playing creampuffs. Nebraska QB not all that mobile so I'm assuming Illinois defensive schemes will try to cause some indecision and pressure there.

 

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Early games:

Ohio +20 Like many bettors, the QB differential is important to the outcome of the ATS result. Ohio has the better QB here, and he's a decent dual threat. Kentucky's defense will have to win this game, with help from the run game. Still, I think the Ohio offense scores enough to keep it competitive for much of the game. Kentucky also has this game wedged between Georgia and Ole Miss.

Small plays:

Charlotte +29 Indiana has played very well so far, but teams like them tend to have letdown games between more important contests. After all, Indiana is NOT that good. UCLA is THAT bad and make Kurtis Rourke look way better than the QB he is. Charlotte is not just a pushover defensively as in the past, and yet they have QB issues. Indiana might allow a backdoor cover preserving key players for conference games ahead.

Marshall +40 Ohio State has dominated Akron and WMU, but Marshall has a more physical, talented team than either of those. It's rare to see any team win by 40+ three games in a row. Conference games begin next week, and I doubt OSU shows much offensively or defensively that'll give film to their future opponents.

Army-7 Rice has a dreadful QB situation, while Army returns to the triple option this season. Army's secondary won't be exposed to a high flying passing offense here. They should wear down Rice by 2nd half. Army run D looks good.